Part 8 of a series: There’s a term you may have heard that describes the
opposite of good decision making – analysis paralysis. This is when for whatever
reason, you cannot or will not make a decision and then execute. Perhaps you
believe you need more information; perhaps you need to convince someone who was
not enrolled in your decision or the decision making process. For these reasons
or others, you may find yourself stuck in first gear spinning and spinning.
You’re ready to move but something may be holding you back.
Let’s assume for a minute you’ve used the logical process described in
previous articles to make your choice, and are ready to execute. Before going
forward there are a few steps that will help you gain alignment with the
stakeholders or those impacted by your decision. This very same process will
force you to look at potential downsides or negative outcomes of your decision.
These outcomes may occur once the decision is made or days, weeks, or even
months afterward. However, it is the master decision-maker who considers all
aspects of the decision and puts a plan in place to both recognize these issues
and deal with them if they arise. Once the plan is in place, there is nothing
holding you back from making the call and moving forward with great
confidence.
So let’s take a look at adverse consequences of your decision. No decision or
plan is perfect. If it’s perfect at the start it will change over time or the
environment will change. Regardless, you will have to acknowledge and be ready
to deal with these outcomes.
Finding adverse consequences or potential negative outcomes is a process just
like decision analysis is a process. One starts by asking some very basic
questions. IF I CHOSE THIS OPTION: what may I have missed in the decision
process that is required to make this choice successful? What might change over
time, or as a result of this decision that would impact its long term success?
What might happen completely outside this decision that could hurt its success?
And last, if I chose this option what things tend to go wrong?
Some examples of adverse consequences that might not be highlighted in the
decision process might include: having to move further away from a place of
employment a few months after buying a gas-guzzling automobile. You’ve been
wooed by a great new employer and taken a new job – only to find out the person
you’ll be working for is a bit of a louse. Your new city has great everything –
except schools, which you discover 3 years after you arrive. You assumed you
could account for an option’s shortcomings then learn the cost of doing so is
much more than you expect. And so on.
The adverse consequences take into account the criteria you’ve considered and
some outside possibilities that would not have changed the decision as well. In
either case, ending up with the best outcome requires action against this list.
Choosing the action to take requires evaluation of the risks involved, the
likelihood those risks will occur, and just how serious it will be if they do.
We complete this exercise by considering two factors: potential impact and
likelihood.
Each adverse consequence is listed and for each, a score is given for its
negative impact to your choice. The score can be low, medium or high. Then, for
each consequence, how likely is it to happen? Again, a score of low, medium, or
high is assigned. Once your list is created and scored your focus areas become
those with a high negative impact and a high likelihood of happening. For each
of these, you’ll determine a way to reduce the impact or likelihood; or better
still eliminate the chance altogether. In rare circumstances, this analysis will
cause you to dump your first choice and go with the second choice. In the end
however, you’ll be sure you’ve made the best choice considering all of the
factors involved.
Up to this point you’ve used a very logical process to make perhaps a very
difficult decision. Surely you wouldn’t use this process to select a place to
eat lunch! However, when considering life’s most difficult decisions, the
process works for you to insure you consider multiple points of view, the very
best information and then focuses you on the best all-around option. Further,
when you consider adverse consequences and create a plan to deal with them,
you’ve set a foundation for a great decision.